Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) stock price has drifted downwards as concerns about the PC industry remain. After rising to a high of $33.78 this month, the stock pulled back to $31.98. It has jumped by more than 29% from the lowest level this year.
PC recovery to take time
Intel and other semiconductor stocks have been doing well in the past few weeks as investors predicted that the industry had bottomed. This rally intensified after the positive results from Micron, which we wrote about here.
Watch here: https://www.youtube.com/embed/dMu79ZKGjL8?feature=oembed
However, a report published by IDC this week showed that the industry has not bottomed yet. According to IDC, the industry was characterized by weak demand excess inventory, and a worsening macro environment.
As a result, global PC shipments dropped by 29% in Q1 compared to the same quarter in 2022. This was a notable comparison considering that 2022 was also one of the weakest years in the PC shipments industry. In total, companies sold over 56.9 million PCs during the quarter. They were also lower than the 59.3 million PCs that were shipped in the first quarter of 2019. In a statement, Jitesh Ubrani of IDC said:
“Even with heavy discounting, channels and PC makers can expect elevated inventory to persist into the middle of the year and potentially into the third quarter.”
According to IDC, Lenovo had the biggest market share in the PC industry followed by HP, Dell, Apple, and Asus.
Another report by SIA showed that semiconductor sales dropped in the first quarter. In all, semiconductor sales dropped by 4% from February and 20.7% from the same quarter in 2022. Sales dropped across all regions, with China, Asia Pacific, and Americas leading the losses.
These numbers mean that Intel’s results will likely be weak in the coming quarters. This is important since the company makes most of its money in the industry. And with companies cutting costs, there is a likelihood that the company’s data center revenue will be under pressure.
Intel stock price forecast
INTC chart by TradingView
The daily chart shows that the INTC stock price has been in a rebound in the past few weeks. It has done several important milestones during this rally. For one, the shares have moved above the important resistance at $31.17, the highest point on February 6 and November 17.
The shares have moved above the 50-day moving average. Most importantly, Intel stock price has moved above the 200-day moving average. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the shares will continue rising as buyers target the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level at $40.44, which is ~26% above the current level.
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